⚡ Flash Summary

Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL) reported a significant decline in financial performance for the year ended June 30, 2025. Revenue plummeted to PKR 5.57 billion, compared to PKR 15.22 billion in the previous year, primarily due to reduced capacity factor. The company incurred a loss after tax of PKR 3.38 billion, a stark contrast to the net profit of PKR 4.91 billion in 2024. This translates to a loss per share of PKR 9.19, a considerable deviation from the earnings per share of PKR 13.37 in the prior period. The adverse financial results were influenced by lower generation demand, reduced capacity tariff components, and the impact of an amendment agreement (‘AA’).

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Revenue decreased significantly by 63.4% year-over-year, from PKR 15.22 billion to PKR 5.57 billion.
• ❌ The company recorded a loss after tax of PKR 3.38 billion in 2025, contrasting with a profit of PKR 4.91 billion in 2024.
• 📉 Loss per share was PKR 9.19 in 2025 compared to earnings per share of PKR 13.37 in 2024.
• 🏭 Electricity dispatch to Power Purchaser significantly reduced to 57,209 MWH from 240,447 MWH.
• ⚡️ Plant capacity factor declined to 3.34% from 13.99%.
• ✅ Availability factor remained high at 99.74% compared to 93.77%.
• 📜 AA encompasses significant financial impacts approved by the Board of Directors on December 4, 2024.
• Hybrid Take-and-Pay model implemented from November 1, 2024.
• 🤝 Full and final settlement of past dues and claims by Power Purchaser improved liquidity position.
• 💰 Receivables from Power Purchaser reduced to PKR 1,464.17 million from PKR 13,170.21 million.
• 🚫 Overdue receivables decreased to PKR 1,052.83 million from PKR 10,170.06 million.
• 💵 Two interim dividends at 50% and 20% respectively have been declared and distributed.
• 💰 An overhauling reserve of PKR 5,509 million created.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the significant decline in financial performance, including a substantial loss, reduced revenue, and the negative impact of the amendment agreement, a SELL recommendation is warranted. The company needs to demonstrate a sustainable recovery in operational performance and profitability before considering an investment. A price target cannot be determined without more information. The time horizon is long-term, pending evidence of a turnaround.