⚡ Flash Summary

Engro Holdings Limited’s Q3 2025 analyst briefing reveals a year of strategic restructuring, including the integration of Deodar into ECPL, increasing tower sites. The group’s performance is influenced by macroeconomic progress under the IMF program. Key achievements include fertilizer sales and domestic PVC volume improvements. Profitability is affected by adjustments in thermal energy assets and changes in ownership percentages.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 1. Real GDP grew by approximately 2.68% in FY2025, falling short of the government’s 3.6% target 📈.
• 2. Monetary policy rate remains stable at 11.0%, with Pakistan’s rating upgraded to Caa1 by Moody’s 📊.
• 3. IMF agreement reached for $1.2 billion, raising disbursements to about $3.3 billion💰.
• 4. Headline Inflation increased to 5.6% in September 2025 due to high food prices 📈.
• 5. KSE-100 index hit an all-time high of 165,000 points in September, a 104% gain since September 2024 🚀.
• 6. On January 1, 2025, scheme of arrangement increased owner’s share reflects 100% ownership interest in ECORP 🤝.
• 7. Termination of SPAs reclassified assets, with a profit after tax of PKR 86,152 million 🎉.
• 8. The consolidated EPS has been tabulated by dividing the profit attributable to owners with increased number of shares ➗.
• 9. Deodar integration into ECPL increased tower sites by 10,617 🗼.
• 10. Consolidated revenue reached PKR 407 billion, against PKR 381 billion last year 👍.
• 11. Profitability was PKR 86.2 billion against PKR 24.3 billion last year ⭐.
• 12. EPS at PKR 34.89, increased from PKR 13.21 last year 💪.
• 13. Standalone dividend income decreased to PKR 537 million, from PKR 5,274 million last year 📉.
• 14. Fertilizer business delivered urea sales of 1,280 KT, down from 1,379 KT 🚜.
• 15. Polymer business delivered 174 KT domestic PVC, up from 146KT last year 🧪.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. Engro Holdings has demonstrated growth and restructuring, but faces external risks and profitability constraints in some sectors. While some indicators are positive, macroeconomic risks and varying sector performances suggest caution. Further analysis needed to provide an accurate price target.