⚡ Flash Summary
ABL Special Savings Fund (ABL-SSF) reported its quarterly financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025. The report includes the economic performance review, noting Pakistan’s economy is building on stabilization with inflation trending lower, though some pressures are building in the quarterly trend. Fiscal collections are holding steady, but are missing targets, while remittances continue to provide crucial support. Despite these challenges, market sentiment improved during the quarter, aided by sovereign rating upgrades and proactive debt management.
📌 Key Takeaways
- 📈 Pakistan’s inflation averaged 4.2% YoY, with a September CPI of 5.6% YoY.
- 🏭 Large-scale manufacturing output rose 8.99% YoY in July 2025.
- 💰 FBR collected Rs 2.86 trillion in 1QFY26, falling short of targets by Rs 198-200 billion.
- 📊 Exports totaled US$5.3bn (+10% YoY), while imports were US$10.4bn (+9% YoY).
- 💸 Workers’ remittances stood at US$6.35bn (+7% YoY).
- deficit to US$624mn in the first two months of FY26.
- 💵 Net financial inflows were US$563mn, driven by government borrowings.
- 📉 FDI remained modest at US$323mn (-34% YoY), and portfolio flows showed outflows of US$83mn.
- 🏦 Liquid FX reserves stood near US$19.8bn by September.
- ⬆️ S&P upgraded Pakistan’s rating in July 2025, followed by Moody’s in August.
- 🏦 State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained its policy rate at 11.00% throughout the quarter.
- 💰 AUMs increased by 14.5% in Conventional Income Funds and 4.1% in Conventional Money Market Funds.
🎯 Investment Thesis
HOLD. Given the mixed economic signals (lower inflation but missed fiscal targets) and the fund’s performance (underperforming benchmarks in most plans), a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While market sentiment improved, vulnerabilities remain. Further monitoring is warranted to assess the sustainability of the economic recovery and the fund’s ability to deliver competitive returns.
Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.