⚡ Flash Summary

Aisha Steel Mills Limited (ASML) provided a corporate briefing for 2025. The company is a major producer of flat steel products with a name-plate capacity of 700,000 tons per annum. Steel demand in Pakistan showed strong recovery, increasing 84% from FY 2022-23 to FY 2024-25. The company’s sales increased in Q1 FY26 compared to the previous year; however, profitability declined significantly.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 🏭 Aisha Steel Mills Limited (ASML) is a public limited company listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) since August 2012.
• 🇵🇰 ASML is part of Arif Habib Group, focusing on value-added flat-rolled steel in Pakistan.
• 🏢 The company operates a state-of-the-art steel rolling complex with a capacity of 700,000 tons per annum.
• 📈 Total steel demand in Pakistan rose by 84%, from 570,000 tons in FY 2022-23 to 1,049,000 tons in FY 2024-25.
• ⚠️ Local producers only saw a marginal 3% sales growth, while imports surged by 148% in the same period.
• 🚫 Sales tax exemptions for FATA/PATA regions drove import increases, which will face a 10% sales tax gradually increasing to 18% from FY 2025-26.
• 🛡️ The National Tariff Commission (NTC) extended Antidumping Duties (ADD) to alternate materials to address misdeclarations.
• 📦 Total quantity sold in Jul-Sep 2025 Qtr. was 43,376 tons, a 112% increase from 20,504 tons last year.
• 🌍 HRC prices fluctuated around US$ 475 FOB China during the July-September 2025 quarter.
• 📉 Kibor 3M decreased by -45.45% from Jul-24 to Sep-25.
• 💲 USD increased by 1.20% from Jul-24 to Sep-25.
• 💶 EURO increased by 10.70% from Jul-24 to Sep-25.
• 💴 JPY increased by 10.99% from Jul-24 to Sep-25.
• 🇨🇳 CNY increased by 2.75% from Jul-24 to Sep-25.
• 💸 Turnover of PKR 354+ billion generated and contributed PKR 71+ billion to the National ex-chequer.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. While the domestic steel demand is increasing, Aisha Steel Mills is struggling to maintain profitability. The declining revenue trend and increased competition from imports pose significant challenges. A HOLD recommendation is appropriate until the company demonstrates sustainable improvements in sales and profitability, showing that it can capitalize on the increased market demand.