⏸️ HBL-FUNDS: HOLD Signal (6/10) – HBL-FUNDS | HBL Asset Management Limited Transmission of Quarterly Report for the Period Ended September 30,- Islamic Funds 2025

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 KMI-30 Index surged by 33%, gaining 61,380 points to close at 246,267.
• 💰 Current account deficit stood at USD 594 million, up from USD 502 million in the previous year.
• 💸 Remittances increased by 8.4% year-on-year to USD 9.5 billion.
• 💹 Headline inflation eased to 5.6%, compared to 6.9% in the prior year.
• 📌 Policy rate maintained at 11.0% by the State Bank of Pakistan.
• ✨ Real GDP growth clocked in at 3.04%, exceeding previous estimate of 2.68%.
• 🌍 Foreign investors net sellers, offloading equities worth USD 136 million.
• 📊 Average daily trading volume on KMI-All-Share Index up 29% quarter-on-quarter.
• 🏦 Top positive contributing sectors: Cement, Oil & Gas E&P, Power, Investment Banks, Banks, Technology & Communication.
• 🤝 IMF’s Extended Fund Facility supporting Pakistan with a second tranche of $1.023 billion disbursed.
• 💲 External financing requirement for FY26 at USD 17.3bn, largely met via bilateral support and program loans.
• 🎯 Inflation projected at 5.4% for FY26, benefiting from PKR stability and base effects.
• 📉 Money market yields remained relatively stable with minimal policy rate cuts anticipated

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the analysis, a HOLD recommendation is most appropriate given the improving macroeconomic factors offset by existing risks. The substantial gains in the KMI-30 Index suggest current prices may already reflect anticipated improvements. Investors should continue to monitor economic developments and adjust positions accordingly. The potential for future gains exists, although caution is warranted until structural reforms create further value and macroeconomic stability is demonstrated.