⚡ Flash Summary

Hub Power Company (HUBCO) reported consolidated net profit of PKR 11,628 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a decrease from PKR 19,125 million in the same period last year. This translates to an EPS of PKR 8.96 compared to PKR 14.74 previously. The decrease is primarily attributed to the termination of the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) of the Hub Plant and amendments to the PPA of the Narowal Plant. Unconsolidated net profit increased slightly to PKR 7,894 million, with EPS rising to PKR 6.09.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Consolidated net profit decreased to Rs. 11,628 million from Rs. 19,125 million YoY.
• 📉 Earnings Per Share (EPS) declined to Rs. 8.96 from Rs. 14.74 YoY.
• 原因 The profit decrease is mainly due to the termination of Hub Plant’s PPA and Narowal Plant’s PPA amendments.
• 📈 Unconsolidated net profit slightly increased to Rs. 7,894 million from Rs. 7,785 million YoY.
• 📈 Unconsolidated EPS increased to Rs. 6.09 from Rs. 6.0 YoY.
• 💰 Unconsolidated profit increase is mainly due to higher dividend income from subsidiaries.
• ⚡️ Net Electrical Output: Narowal: 20.2 GWh, Laraib: 18 GWh, CPHGC: 304 GWh, TEL: 496 GWh, TN: 472 GWh.
• ⚙️ Load Factor: Narowal: 4.28%, Laraib: 10%, CPHGC: 11.6%, TEL: 75%, TN: 71%.
• ✅ Verification done for Project Completion Date (PCD) of TEL and TN; approval expected next quarter, followed by dividend disbursement.
• ⛏️ Prime continues identifying drilling opportunities and tested a new well for maximizing production.
• 🔌 HUBCO Green has 10 operational DC fast chargers; targeting 4 EV chargers on highways as Phase 1 to connect Karachi to Peshawar.
• 🤝 HUBCO’s subsidiary Ark Metals is evaluating mineral exploration opportunities in Balochistan.
• ✅ Directors proposed a final cash dividend of Rs. 10.00 per share for the year ended June 30, 2025, and an interim cash dividend of Rs. 5.00 per share for the year ending June 30, 2026.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the decrease in profits due to the PPA termination, and the high level of uncertainty, it is hard to recommend a buy. A HOLD is recommended, in order to maintain an investment into the company and generate revenue from dividends while things develop. Reassess after more data about the future can be gathered.