⏸️ NBP-FUNDS: HOLD Signal (6/10) – Financial Results of NBP Mahana Amdani Fund for the quarter ended September 30, 2025

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 Fund size increased by ~2.67x, from Rs. 7,306 million to Rs. 19,480 million.
• 💰 Unit price increased from Rs. 10.2971 to Rs. 10.5621 during the quarter.
• 📊 Fund return was 10.2% p.a., vs. a benchmark of 10.6% p.a..
• 🏦 Policy rate maintained at 11% by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
• inflation rose to 5.6% in September from 3.0% in August
• 📉 Average inflation for the quarter was 4.2%, down from 9.2% last year.
• 🎯 Average inflation for FY26 projected within the SBP’s 5%-7% target range.
• 🌱 Real GDP growth for FY26 projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.
• ⚠️ Current account deficit was USD 624 million for July-August.
• reserves stood at USD 14.4 billion on September 26th and are projected to reach USD 17 billion by June-26.
• ✅ Fiscal performance improved with a primary surplus expected in Q1 FY26.
• 💸 Rs. 2.4 trillion SBP profit transfer and higher petroleum levies aided fiscal performance.
• ✅ Sovereign debt markets remained stable with Rs. 3.55 trillion raised via T-Bill auctions.
• ⭐ Fund is rated ‘AA- (f)’ by PACRA, indicating a very strong capacity to maintain relative stability in returns.
• 💼 Total income for the period was Rs. 282.71 million; net income was Rs. 245.15 million after expenses.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. While the NBP Mahana Amdani Fund has shown growth in size and unit price, its return slightly lags the benchmark. Given the current economic conditions in Pakistan, characterized by fluctuating inflation and policy rates, it’s prudent to maintain a neutral stance. A detailed analysis of the fund’s asset allocation and investment strategy is necessary before considering a BUY recommendation. Price Target: Rs. 10.75, Time Horizon: Medium Term