⏸️ NCPL: HOLD Signal (5/10) – Holding of Corporate Briefing Session of Nishat Chunian Power Ltd. FY 2025 in Compliance with the requirements of Clause 5.7.3 of the Rule Book – Submission of Presentation for CBS 2025

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Revenue decreased by 63% from PKR 15,215 million in 2024 to PKR 5,566 million in 2025.
• 💸 Net profit turned into a net loss of PKR 3,375.92 million in 2025, compared to a profit of PKR 4,912.31 million in 2024, a -169% change.
• ❌ Loss per share is PKR (9.19) in 2025 versus earnings per share of PKR 13.37 in 2024.
• ⚡️ Electricity generation (MWH) dropped by 76%, from 240,447 in 2024 to 57,209 in 2025.
• ⚙️ Capacity factor decreased from 13.99% to 3.34%.
• ✅ Amendment agreement includes the Government of Pakistan withdrawing arbitration under ASA for excess profits dispute.
• 💰 Receivables payment as of October 31, 2024, amounts to PKR 6.6 billion.
• 💸 Outstanding and Accrued Delay Payments (DP) up to October 31, 2024, have been waived.
• 🔄 Tariff revision includes converting to a hybrid take-and-pay model and a reduced Delay Payment (DP) rate.
• 🌍 Foreign O&M indexation with USD capped at 70% in case of PKR depreciation, effective from November 1, 2024.
• 🇵🇰 Local O&M indexation capped at the lower of 5% or actual NCPI.
• 🔩 Fixed O&M components reduced by 5%.
• 🔄 ROE & ROEDC components are now on a hybrid take-and-pay mode.
• 📊 Working Capital Component has been rebased.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the poor financial performance in 2025 and the risks associated with regulatory changes and operational efficiencies, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While the amendment agreement provides some clarity on tariff structures, the financial impact appears to be negative in the short term. A price target cannot be accurately determined without detailed financial projections. Time horizon is medium term, until the company demonstrates a return to profitability and improved operational performance.