⚡ Flash Summary

PPL’s Analyst Briefing Presentation 2025 reveals a challenging period with declining sales and profitability. Revenue decreased by 16% to PKR 243 billion, primarily due to gas curtailment and lower crude oil prices. Net profit fell by 19% to PKR 92 billion despite some offsetting factors like insurance claims and reduced exploration expenses. The company is focusing on exploration, development, and strategic initiatives like the Reko Diq project to mitigate risks and enhance future performance.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Revenue decreased by 16% YoY to PKR 243 billion due to gas curtailment and lower crude prices.
• ⚠️ Net profit declined by 19% YoY to PKR 92 billion, impacting profitability.
• ⛽ PPL’s share of local gas production is approximately 19% (~0.56 Bcfd).
• 🛢️ PPL’s share of local oil production is around 16% (10.1 KBOPD).
• 💰 Customer collections improved to 91% compared to 81% in the prior year.
• ⛏️ Reko Diq’s feasibility study has been completed, with financial close in progress.
• 🧰 Signed PCA with ADNOC for development of pre-existing discoveries.
• ✅ Achieved 129% Reserve Replacement Ratio (2P).
• 🔍 Awarded 2 new Exploration Blocks.
• 📊 Trade debts increased to PKR 592 billion.
• 🌱 The production forecast is estimated to be between 600-650 MMscfde, depending on gas curtailment.
• 🌍 Active seismic campaign of ~700 line km 2D and ~600 Sq km 3D acquisition is underway.
• 🚧 Exploration and appraisal wells planned in Kandhkot, Shah Bandar, Gambat South, and Sirani.
• 🏢 Total authorized capital is PKR 35 billion, while subscribed capital stands at PKR 27.21 billion.
• 🤝 Government of Pakistan holds 67.5% shareholding

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. The decline in revenue and profitability raises concerns. While the company is taking steps to mitigate risks and enhance future performance through strategic projects, the near-term outlook remains challenging. The investment decision should depend on the successful execution of these initiatives and a recovery in oil prices. Price target dependent on future earnings growth.