ATRL

⚡ Flash Summary

Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) reported a significant decrease in financial performance for the year ended June 30, 2025, compared to the previous year. Net sales decreased from Rs 382,917 million to Rs 301,330 million, and net profit declined sharply from Rs 25,244 million to Rs 11,972 million. Earnings per share also saw a substantial drop from Rs 236.76 to Rs 112.30. The company faces risks related to crude oil availability, smuggling, and adverse changes in taxation and international oil prices.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Net Sales decreased by 21.3% from Rs 382,917 million to Rs 301,330 million.
• 📉 Net Profit plummeted by 52.5% from Rs 25,244 million to Rs 11,972 million.
• 📉 Earnings per Share (EPS) dropped by 52.5% from Rs 236.76 to Rs 112.30.
• 🏭 Production volume decreased from 1,804 M. Ton ‘000 to 1,629 M. Ton ‘000.
• ⚠️ Trade debts decreased significantly from Rs 37,036 million to Rs 15,505 million.
• ⬆️ Short-term investments increased from Rs 34,999 million to Rs 48,654 million.
• 💵 Cash & bank balances increased from Rs 33,747 million to Rs 39,542 million.
• 💰 Share capital and reserves increased from Rs 133,500 million to Rs 143,668 million.
• 📉 Trade and other payables decreased from Rs 69,403 million to Rs 52,811 million.
• ⛽ High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales quantity decreased from 37% in 2024 to 36% in 2025.
• ✈️ Jet Fuel sales quantity increased from 4% in 2024 to 6% in 2025.
• 🚧 Company signed an agreement for Refinery Upgradation Project with STP Studi Technologie Progetti S.p.A. of Italy.
• 🚢 Export of LSFO was 137,880 Tons, enabling continuity of operations.
• 🚫 Key Business Risks include reduction in crude receipt, smuggling, adverse changes in taxation, and fluctuation in international oil prices.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the significant decline in financial performance, ongoing risks, and uncertain outlook, a SELL recommendation is appropriate. The price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, considering the reduced profitability and increased risks. The time horizon is medium-term (6-12 months).

⚡ Flash Summary

Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) reported a decrease in financial performance for the year ended June 30, 2025. Net sales decreased to Rs 301,330 million from Rs 382,917 million in the prior year, and net profit declined significantly to Rs 11,972 million from Rs 25,244 million. This resulted in a lower earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 112.30 compared to Rs 236.76 in 2024. The company highlighted key business risks, including reductions in crude receipts and adverse fluctuations in international prices.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Net Sales decreased from Rs 382,917 million to Rs 301,330 million.
• 📉 Net Profit declined from Rs 25,244 million to Rs 11,972 million.
• 📉 Earnings per share (EPS) dropped from Rs 236.76 to Rs 112.30.
• 🏭 Production decreased from 1,804 M. Ton ‘000 to 1,629 M. Ton ‘000.
• ⚠️ Trade debts significantly decreased from Rs 37,036 million to Rs 15,505 million.
• ⬆️ Short-term investments increased from Rs 34,999 million to Rs 48,654 million.
• ⬇️ Trade and other payable decreased from Rs 69,403 million to Rs 52,811 million, reflecting lower crude oil prices.
• ❗ Cost of sales decreased from Rs 354,126 million to Rs 291,592 million, aligning with reduced crude oil prices and lower capacity utilization.
• 💸 Other operating expenses decreased slightly from Rs 4,444 million to Rs 3,287 million.
• 📈 Finance cost increased from zero to Rs 526 million due to exchange losses and lease interest.
• 💸 Taxation decreased from Rs 15,069 million to Rs 7,079 million, reflecting lower profits.
• Market share in petroleum products consumption decreased from 37% to 40%.
• ✅ Signed an agreement for Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for Refinery Upgradation Project.
• Export of LSFO was 137,880 Tons.
• ⚠️ Key business risks include reduction in crude receipt and smuggling/unwarranted imports.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the significant decline in financial performance and identified business risks, a SELL recommendation is warranted for Attock Refinery. The company’s profitability has been severely impacted, and there are challenges related to crude availability and market conditions. A price target will require a more in-depth valuation analysis, considering these factors. The time horizon is medium-term, as the company needs time to address the challenges and potentially recover its financial performance.