NEGATIVE

⏸️ ICIBL: HOLD Signal (5/10) – FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

ICIBL’s unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reveal a mixed performance. The company reported a profit for the quarter of PKR 20.404 million, a decrease from the PKR 33.839 million reported in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share also decreased to PKR 0.072 from PKR 0.119. No cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares were recommended by the board.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 5/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Profit for the quarter decreased to PKR 20.404 million compared to PKR 33.839 million in September 2024.
  • 📉 Earnings per share (EPS) declined to PKR 0.072 from PKR 0.119 year-over-year.
  • 🚫 No cash dividend was recommended by the Board of Directors.
  • 🚫 No bonus shares were declared for the quarter.
  • 🚫 No right shares were announced.
  • ⚠️ Unrealized loss on financial assets at fair value decreased cash flow from operating activities
  • ⬆️ Total assets increased from PKR 1,567.878 million in June 2025 to PKR 1,602.287 million in September 2025.
  • ➡️ Capital reserves remained unchanged at (PKR 2,022,075,992).
  • ⬆️ Accumulated loss decreased slightly from PKR (228,327,759) to PKR (207,923,300).
  • ⬆️ Cash generated from operations decreased from PKR 32,464,486 to PKR 28,184,138.
  • ⬇️ Net cash used in investing activities was PKR (35,828,148), compared to a positive PKR 5,250,547 in the previous year.
  • ➡️ Authorized capital remains at 485,000,000 ordinary shares of Rs. 10 each.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. The company’s declining profitability and cash flow generation are concerning. Further, ICIBL has a significant accumulated loss. The price target is based on stabilizing the revenue and profit trends in future quarters. Need further clarity before making any changes in investment strategy.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

⏸️ GRYL: HOLD Signal (5/10) – Corporate briefing session of GLL for the year ended 30-06-2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Grays Leasing Limited (GLL) held a corporate briefing session for the year ended June 30, 2025. The company reported a decrease in gross revenue from operations, falling to PKR 24.404 million from PKR 30.515 million in 2024. Profit before and after tax also declined compared to the previous year. Despite the drop in profitability, shareholders’ equity increased from PKR 71.153 million to PKR 76.583 million. The company is navigating challenges such as decreasing interest rates and is focused on developing an ECL model as per IFRS 9.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 5/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: SHORT_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 **Revenue Decline:** Gross revenue decreased to PKR 24.404 million from PKR 30.515 million in 2024.
  • 📉 **Profitability Drop:** Profit before tax fell to PKR 6.042 million, and profit after tax to PKR 5.546 million.
  • ⬆️ **Equity Increase:** Shareholders’ equity increased from PKR 71.153 million to PKR 76.583 million.
  • ✅ **IFRS 9 Compliance:** Working on developing an ECL model as per IFRS 9 for potential lease losses.
  • ✅ **Recovery Efforts:** Sanctioned and recovered PKR 127.821 million and PKR 77.482 million, respectively, against gross investment.
  • ⬆️ **Investment in Leases:** Gross investment in finance leases stands at PKR 510.094 million, up from PKR 496.854 million.
  • ✅ **Net Investment Increase:** Net investment in finance leases increased to PKR 442.616 million from PKR 419.328 million.
  • 📉 **EPS Decrease:** Earnings per share decreased from 0.361 to 0.258.
  • ✅ **KIBOR Impact:** Reduced KIBOR rate (11-12%) makes financing/leasing attractive.
  • ⚠️ **Risk Factors:** Challenges include limited awareness among SMEs/general consumers about NBFCs and geographic presence.
  • ✅ **No Overdue Leases:** No leases currently running are overdue.
  • ✅ **Provisioning Adequacy:** Bad portfolio (classified) has already been 100% provided for.
  • ✅ **Used Car Financing:** Potential growth in leasing/financing of used vehicles due to government policy.
  • ✅ **Restriction on Banking Sector:** Restriction on banking sector disbursal will help in generating the demand of leasing in the sector.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. The company’s financial performance has declined, but it is actively addressing regulatory requirements and strategic positioning with respect to auto-leasing. The company is navigating a challenging interest rate environment, with efforts to leverage used car financing opportunities. Price target: PKR 3.50, Time horizon: 12 months. This is based on book value per share.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

⏸️ UBLPETF: HOLD Signal (5/10) – ETF FMR September 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

UBL Pakistan Enterprise Exchange Traded Fund (UBLPETF) reported a FY-YTD return of 37.32% as of September 2025, underperforming its benchmark which had a return of 38.23%. The fund’s NAV increased by 16.17% from August to September 2025, reaching PKR 37.7043. The fund’s expense ratio (FYTD) is 1.43%. The fund primarily invests in equities, with the largest sector allocation in commercial banks (31.71%).

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 5/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📈 FY-YTD return for UBLPETF is 37.32%, vs. benchmark’s 38.23%.
  • 🗓️ September 2025 return is 12.21% for UBLPETF, while the benchmark is 12.66%.
  • 🌟 Since inception (CAGR), UBLPETF has a return of 34.43% compared to the benchmark’s 37.76%.
  • ⚠️ Standard Deviation for UBLPETF is 26.84%.
  • 📊 Sharpe Ratio for UBLPETF is 4.05.
  • 🔄 Portfolio Turnover Ratio is very low at 0.01%.
  • ℹ️ Information Ratio is -22.44.
  • ⚖️ Beta is 0.94.
  • 💸 Total Expense Ratio (FYTD) is 1.43%.
  • 💰 Fund Size increased by 16.17% between August and September 2025.
  • 🏦 Top sector allocation is Commercial Banks at 31.71%.
  • 🏭 Fertilizer sector allocation is 20.24%.
  • 🏦 Investment Banks/Companies allocation is 13.10%.
  • ⚡ Power Generation & Distribution allocation is 12.22%.
  • 🧱 Cement allocation is 10.91%.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. While UBLPETF provides exposure to the Pakistani equity market, its underperformance compared to the benchmark and relatively high expense ratio raise concerns. The fund’s sector concentration also presents a risk. A HOLD recommendation is appropriate until there’s evidence of improved performance and diversification. Price Target: Maintain current NAV level, Time Horizon: 6-12 months.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

⏸️ NCML: HOLD Signal (5/10) – FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Nazir Cotton Mills Limited reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company experienced a net loss of PKR 2.28 million, a significant decrease compared to the net loss of PKR 5.48 million in the same quarter last year. There was no cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares declared for the quarter. The company’s statement of financial position shows total equity and liabilities of PKR 288.91 million, slightly decreased from PKR 289.43 million as of June 30, 2024.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 5/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was PKR 2.28 million.
  • 📉 This is an improvement compared to a net loss of PKR 5.48 million for the same quarter last year.
  • ⛔ No cash dividend was declared for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
  • ⛔ No bonus shares were declared for the quarter.
  • ⛔ No right shares were declared for the quarter.
  • 💰 Total equity and liabilities stood at PKR 288.91 million as of September 30, 2025.
  • 🏦 Cash and bank balances decreased to PKR 624,354 from PKR 6,863,482 at the end of the last year.
  • ⬆️ Other operating income increased to PKR 355,244 from PKR 148,673.
  • ⬆️ Trade debts decreased to PKR 83,300 from PKR 79,730.
  • ⬇️ Deposits, prepayments, and other receivables decreased to PKR 2,311,847 from PKR 3,157,513.
  • ❌ No other entitlement/corporate action was recommended.
  • ❌ No other price-sensitive information was disclosed.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the current financial performance, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While the reduced loss is a positive signal, sustained profitability is yet to be achieved. A more optimistic outlook would require consistent positive cash flows and a clear path to profitability. Further, it would require that management can demonstrate the ability to continue to increase operating income while reducing cost. An updated recommendation should be considered in the following quarter. The price target can only be determined once there is a more detailed discounted cash flow.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

📉 PKGP: SELL Signal (9/10) – FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE 3RD QUARTER ENDED DEPTEMBER 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Pakgen Power Limited’s financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, show a concerning net loss of PKR 296.093 million, a stark contrast to the profit of PKR 6,197.846 million in the same period last year. Revenue experienced a sharp decline, falling to PKR 925.405 million from PKR 10,806.198 million. This poor performance led to a loss per share of PKR 0.80, versus earnings per share of PKR 16.66 last year. The company did not declare any cash dividend, bonus shares, or any other entitlement.

Signal: SELL 📉
Strength: 9/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Pakgen Power reported a net loss of PKR 296.093 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
  • 📉 This contrasts sharply with a profit of PKR 6,197.846 million in the same period last year.
  • 📉 Revenue plummeted to PKR 925.405 million from PKR 10,806.198 million year-over-year.
  • ⛔ Loss per share (LPS) stood at PKR 0.80, compared to earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 16.66 last year.
  • ❌ No cash dividend was declared for the period.
  • ❌ No bonus shares were announced.
  • ❌ No right shares were announced.
  • ❌ No other entitlement was announced.
  • 🔻 Total Equity decreased to PKR 25,554.896 million from PKR 26,595.153 million at the end of 2024.
  • ⚠️ Finance costs decreased from PKR 27.493 million to PKR 280 million.
  • 💰 Cash and cash equivalents increased from PKR 6,726.329 million to PKR 22,038.065 million during the nine-month period.
  • 🏭 Plant maintenance and preservation costs were PKR 1,649.333 million for the nine-month period.
  • ⚠️ Taxation was a significant expense at PKR 311.335 million.
  • 📉 Total comprehensive loss for the period was PKR 296.093 million.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the significant decline in revenue and the swing to a net loss, a SELL recommendation is appropriate. The lack of dividend further reduces the attractiveness of the stock. Price target: revise downward based on negative earnings. Time horizon: Medium Term.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

⏸️ OPENFUND: HOLD Signal (6/10) – OPEN FUND 786 Smart Fund Transmission of Quarterly Report for the Period Ended September 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

OPEN FUND 786 Smart Fund’s quarterly report for the period ended September 30, 2025, indicates a decrease in net assets from PKR 1,513.811 million to PKR 1,409.085 million. However, the Net Asset Value (NAV) per unit increased from PKR 84.06 to PKR 86.02 during the quarter. The fund’s total income decreased from PKR 69.798 million to PKR 42.141 million, while net income also declined from PKR 62.714 million to PKR 34.061 million. This performance reflects broader economic stabilization efforts in Pakistan amid ongoing inflationary pressures.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 6/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Net assets decreased from PKR 1,513.811 million to PKR 1,409.085 million.
  • ⬆️ NAV per unit increased from PKR 84.06 to PKR 86.02.
  • 📉 Total income decreased from PKR 69.798 million to PKR 42.141 million.
  • 📉 Net income decreased from PKR 62.714 million to PKR 34.061 million.
  • 🏦 Balances with banks decreased from PKR 949.917 million to PKR 714.882 million.
  • ⬆️ Investments increased from PKR 558.697 million to PKR 690.756 million.
  • ⬆️ Accrued income/profit decreased slightly from PKR 18.962 million to PKR 17.591 million.
  • 📊 Total assets decreased from PKR 1,527.728 million to PKR 1,423.380 million.
  • 💸 Total liabilities increased slightly from PKR 13.917 million to PKR 14.295 million.
  • 📜 Number of units in issue decreased from 18,007,686 to 16,380,813.
  • 📉 Income from investments and balances with banks decreased from PKR 64.342 million to PKR 40.466 million.
  • ⬆️ Expenses increased from PKR 7.083 million to PKR 8.079 million.
  • 🌐 Pakistan’s liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 19.79 billion.
  • ✅ Registration of the Trust Deed of the fund was made under the Sindh Trust Act, 2020.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the decrease in total income and net income, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While the NAV per unit increased slightly, the overall decline in net assets and higher expenses raise concerns. Further analysis of the fund’s asset allocation, expense management, and sector-specific performance is needed before considering a BUY recommendation. If the fund can control expenses and improve its income-generating capacity, it may warrant a more positive outlook. If the sector in general is in for poor performance then a SELL recommendation is appropriate.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

📉 IBFL: SELL Signal (7/10) – Financial Results for the Quarter Ended 30-09-2025

⚡ Flash Summary

IBFL’s financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reveal a mixed performance. While the company reported a net sales of PKR 24.91 billion, this represents a decline compared to PKR 27.05 billion in the same quarter last year. Profitability has also been significantly impacted, with a profit for the period decreasing from PKR 582.66 million in Q3 2024 to PKR 151.84 million in Q3 2025. This decline in profitability is a key concern for investors.

Signal: SELL 📉
Strength: 7/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: SHORT_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Net sales decreased to PKR 24.91 billion in Q3 2025 from PKR 27.05 billion in Q3 2024.
  • 📉 Profit for the period significantly dropped to PKR 151.84 million in Q3 2025 compared to PKR 582.66 million in Q3 2024.
  • 💸 Earnings per share (EPS) declined to PKR 0.49 in Q3 2025 from PKR 1.88 in Q3 2024.
  • ⚠️ Cost of goods sold decreased but not enough to offset sales decline, impacting gross profit.
  • 📉 Gross profit decreased from PKR 2.24 billion to PKR 1.49 billion.
  • ⚠️ Finance costs decreased to PKR 207.41 million from PKR 370.63 million.
  • 🔻 Nine-month sales decreased to PKR 78.24 billion in 2025 from PKR 91.04 billion in 2024.
  • 🔻 Nine-month profit decreased to PKR 1.59 billion in 2025 from PKR 1.73 billion in 2024.
  • 💰 Cash flow from operations is PKR 4.97 billion.
  • 💼 Total capital employed increased to PKR 72.24 billion from PKR 68.35 billion.
  • ⛔️ No cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares were announced.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the declining revenue, significant decrease in profitability, and reduced EPS, a SELL recommendation is warranted for IBFL. The company’s financial performance indicates underlying operational and market-related challenges. The price target should be revised downwards to reflect the lower earnings potential and increased risks. Time horizon is short term, expecting further decline in the stock price.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

📉 CSIL: SELL Signal (8/10) – Financial Results for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Crescent Star Insurance Limited reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company’s net insurance premium decreased significantly compared to the same quarter last year, moving from 48.68 million to 21.77 million rupees. This resulted in an underwriting loss of 9.88 million rupees, a stark contrast to the 18.87 million rupees profit in the previous year. The company reported a loss after tax of 7.17 million rupees, compared to a profit of 10.34 million rupees in the same quarter last year.

Signal: SELL 📉
Strength: 8/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: SHORT_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Net insurance premium decreased by approximately 55.3% year-over-year (YoY), from 48.68 million to 21.77 million rupees.
  • ⚠️ Underwriting results turned negative, with a loss of 9.88 million rupees compared to a profit of 18.87 million rupees in the same quarter last year.
  • ⛔️ Loss after tax reported at 7.17 million rupees, a significant downturn from a profit of 10.34 million rupees YoY.
  • 🔻 Earnings per share (EPS) is negative at (0.07) compared to 0.10 YoY.
  • Investments brought income of 2.16 million rupees.
  • 💸 Other income decreased from 0.31 million to 2.15 million rupees.
  • 💸 Finance costs were not listed, implying their insignificance.
  • 👎 Total comprehensive income decreased significantly to 33.57 million rupees from -21.32 million rupees YoY.
  • 💰 Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period stood at 1.23 million rupees.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the significant decline in financial performance and increased risks, a SELL recommendation is warranted. The negative EPS, declining revenue, and shift to underwriting losses indicate fundamental problems. A price target would be require a more thorough discounted cash flow analysis but is expected to be below the current market price with a short-term time horizon.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

⏸️ ICIBL: HOLD Signal (6/10) – TRANSMISSION OF QUARTERLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Invest Capital Investment Bank Limited reported a net profit of PKR 20.40 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a decrease from PKR 33.84 million in the same quarter last year. The decrease in profit is attributed to an unrealized loss on investment in shares. Gross revenue decreased to PKR 28.48 million compared to PKR 41.36 million in the prior year, while administrative and operating expenses slightly decreased. The company focused on increasing profitability by investing in new financing businesses (leases and loans) amounting to PKR 115.23 million and stock market shares of PKR 43.17 million. Total assets increased to PKR 1,602.29 million due to new lease/financing business.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️
Strength: 6/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Net profit decreased to PKR 20.40 million from PKR 33.84 million year-over-year.
  • 😟 Earnings per share (EPS) fell to PKR 0.072 from PKR 0.119 year-over-year.
  • Revenue dropped to PKR 28.48 million from PKR 41.36 million year-over-year, showing a concerning decline. Revenue includes other income.
  • Expenses were well managed with administrative and operating costs at PKR 7.80 million, lower than the prior year’s PKR 8.10 million.
  • 💼 Investment in new financing businesses (leases and loans) totaled PKR 115.23 million.
  • 💸 Investment in stock market shares was PKR 43.17 million.
  • 🏦 No investment in Treasury bills due to reduced policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan to 11.00%.
  • ✅ Effective risk management leads to negligible infection levels in the new financing business, with nearly 100% recovery of billed amounts.
  • 💪 Management remains determined to improve recovery from old non-performing leases and loans.
  • 📈 Total assets increased by PKR 34.42 million to PKR 1,602.29 million.
  • Liabilities increased to PKR 820.70 million, a sign of increased financial obligations.
  • Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of recovery with a GDP growth of 3.04% expected for fiscal year 2025.
  • Despite challenges, management is confident in improving profitability in the future.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the decrease in profitability and dependence on recovery from old non-performing loans, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While the company is taking steps to improve profitability through strategic investments, the near-term outlook remains uncertain. The target price will be kept at the current level until there’s a clear indication of recovery and sustained growth in profitability.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

📉 DFML: SELL Signal (7/10) – Disclosure of Interest by a Director CEO, or Executive of a listed company and their Spouses and the Substantial Shareholders u/c 5.6.1.(d) of PSX Regulations

⚡ Flash Summary

On October 24, 2025, Dewan Farooque Motors Limited disclosed transactions by a substantial shareholder, Dewan M. Yousuf Farooqui, involving the sale of company shares on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The sales occurred between October 14 and October 21, 2025, through the ready market via Central Depository Company (CDC). These transactions cumulatively reduced Dewan M. Yousuf Farooqui’s shareholding from 37.46% to 35.38%. The company confirms that these transactions will be presented in a subsequent board meeting and comply with PSX regulations.

Signal: SELL 📉
Strength: 7/10
Sentiment: NEGATIVE
Time Horizon: SHORT_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 📉 Dewan M. Yousuf Farooqui sold shares in Dewan Farooque Motors Limited.
  • 🗓️ Sales occurred on multiple dates: Oct 14, 15, 16, 20, and 21, 2025.
  • 🏢 Transactions were executed through the ready market via CDC.
  • 💰 Sale prices ranged from PKR 30.00 to PKR 31.56 per share.
  • 📉 A total of 6,539,161 shares were sold during this period.
  • 📊 Initial shareholding of Dewan M. Yousuf Farooqui was 37.46%.
  • 📉 Final shareholding after the sales is reported as 35.38%.
  • 📉 Total percentage decrease in shareholding is approximately 2.08%.
  • 🏢 The company confirms compliance with PSX regulations 5.6.4(d).
  • ✅ Board meeting will review the transactions.
  • ⏳ Holding period for the sold shares exceeded six months.
  • 📜 Sections 104 and 105 of the Securities Act, 2015 are not applicable.
  • 👨‍💼 Muhammad Hanif German, Director & Company Secretary, signed the disclosure.
  • 👨‍💼 Mehmood-ul-Hassan Asghar, Director, also signed the disclosure.

🎯 Investment Thesis

SELL. The reduction in shareholding by a substantial shareholder is a negative signal. While the company confirms compliance with regulations, the potential for further selling pressure and the resulting negative market sentiment outweigh any positive aspects. A price target needs further analysis based on the company’s financials and market conditions, but a downward revision may be warranted given the current situation.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: November 7, 2025

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