NEGATIVE - FoxLogica

⏸️ SPCL: HOLD Signal (4/10) – Financial Results for the Quarter Ended

⚡ Flash Summary

Saudi Pak Consultancy Company Limited (SPCL) reported a challenging first quarter for 2025, with a significant decline in total income compared to the same period last year. The company experienced an operating loss before provisions, but a substantial reversal of provisions against leases, loans, and receivables helped to achieve a profit before taxation. However, earnings per share decreased from Rs. 0.21 to Rs. 0.10. Management attributes the income decline to delays in profit receipts on bank balances and slower progress in out-of-court settlements for non-performing portfolios.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️

Strength: 4/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📉 Total income decreased significantly to Rs. 1.42 million from Rs. 14.48 million YoY.
💰 Income from finance and operating leases declined to Rs. 1.22 million from Rs. 4.18 million YoY.
⚠️ Operating loss before provisions was Rs. (22.13) million, worsening from Rs. (8.40) million YoY.
✅ Reversal/provision against leases, loans, and receivables stood at Rs. 25.04 million, up from Rs. 17.86 million YoY.
👍 Profit before taxation decreased to Rs. 4.33 million from Rs. 9.46 million YoY.
📉 Earnings per share (EPS) declined to Rs. 0.10 from Rs. 0.21 YoY.
🏦 Finance costs decreased to Rs. (4.73) million from Rs. (10.57) million YoY.
🏢 Administrative expenses increased to Rs. (17.40) million from Rs. (12.31) million YoY.
🏦 Cash and bank balances decreased to Rs 53.16 million from Rs. 69.74 million since June 30, 2025.
🚫 Company anticipates the conclusion of settlement agreements by the second quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.
💼 Total assets decreased slightly to Rs 668.51 million from Rs. 686.03 million since June 30, 2025.
⚠️ Accumulated losses stand at Rs. (1,618.82) million.
liabilities decreased to Rs 1,063.35 million from Rs. 1,085.21 million since June 30, 2025.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. While the company has taken steps to streamline operations and address non-performing assets, the current financial performance and the ongoing uncertainties do not justify a BUY recommendation. A more favorable outlook could be considered if the company demonstrates consistent improvement in earnings and cash flow. Considering the risks and lack of upside, SELL is not appropriate either.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 22, 2025

announcements Signal: SELL

📉 TPLT: SELL Signal (8/10) – Financial Results for the Year Ended June 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

TPL Trakker Limited’s financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, reveal a concerning downturn compared to the previous year. The company experienced a significant decrease in revenue, dropping from PKR 2.54 billion in 2024 to PKR 1.77 billion in 2025. This decline in revenue translated to a net loss of PKR 69.95 million in 2025, a stark contrast to the net profit of PKR 135.02 million reported in 2024. No cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares were recommended by the board.

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 8/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📉 Revenue declined significantly by 30.26% from PKR 2.54 billion in 2024 to PKR 1.77 billion in 2025.
📉 The company recorded a net loss of PKR 69.95 million in 2025, compared to a net profit of PKR 135.02 million in 2024.
📉 Basic and diluted loss per share stood at PKR 0.37 in 2025, down from earnings per share of PKR 0.72 in 2024.
⚠️ Operating profit decreased substantially from PKR 627.51 million in 2024 to PKR 280.71 million in 2025.
⚠️ Finance costs were significant at PKR 337.24 million in 2025, slightly lower than PKR 515.04 million in 2024.
⚠️ The company reports no cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares were recommended by the board.
⚠️ Total assets decreased from PKR 6.23 billion in 2024 to PKR 6.01 billion in 2025, indicating a contraction in the asset base.
⚠️ Stock-in-trade increased significantly from PKR 232.16 million to PKR 309.55 million.
⚠️ Trade debts decreased from PKR 565.13 million to PKR 329.04 million.
⚠️ Cash and bank balances decreased from PKR 159.55 million to PKR 125.83 million.
⚠️ Long-term financing decreased from PKR 223.45 million to PKR 17.06 million.
⚠️ Revenue reserves decreased from PKR 136.98 million to PKR 67.03 million.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the significant decline in financial performance, coupled with the shift to a net loss position and decreased cash flows, a SELL recommendation is warranted for TPL Trakker Limited. The company’s revenue downturn, operating profit reduction, and balance sheet contraction raise concerns about its ability to sustain operations and generate future value. Price Target: PKR 5.00, Time Horizon: Medium Term

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 21, 2025

announcements Signal: SELL

📉 TPLT: SELL Signal (8/10) – Financial Results for the Year Ended June 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 8/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📉 Revenue declined significantly by 30.26% from PKR 2.54 billion in 2024 to PKR 1.77 billion in 2025.
📉 The company recorded a net loss of PKR 69.95 million in 2025, compared to a net profit of PKR 135.02 million in 2024.
📉 Basic and diluted loss per share stood at PKR 0.37 in 2025, down from earnings per share of PKR 0.72 in 2024.
⚠️ Operating profit decreased substantially from PKR 627.51 million in 2024 to PKR 280.71 million in 2025.
⚠️ Finance costs were significant at PKR 337.24 million in 2025, slightly lower than PKR 515.04 million in 2024.
⚠️ The company reports no cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares were recommended by the board.
⚠️ Total assets decreased from PKR 6.23 billion in 2024 to PKR 6.01 billion in 2025, indicating a contraction in the asset base.
⚠️ Stock-in-trade increased significantly from PKR 232.16 million to PKR 309.55 million.
⚠️ Trade debts decreased from PKR 565.13 million to PKR 329.04 million.
⚠️ Cash and bank balances decreased from PKR 159.55 million to PKR 125.83 million.
⚠️ Long-term financing decreased from PKR 223.45 million to PKR 17.06 million.
⚠️ Revenue reserves decreased from PKR 136.98 million to PKR 67.03 million.

🎯 Investment Thesis

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 21, 2025

announcements EFERT Signal: HOLD

⏸️ EFERT: HOLD Signal (6/10) – Analyst Briefing – Final Presentation for the nine months ended September 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) presented its Q3 2025 results, revealing a mixed performance landscape. Macroeconomic indicators stabilized, supported by low inflation and steady exchange rates, fostering a positive outlook for FY26 with GDP growth projected at 3.6%. Farmer economics improved due to wheat price increases, and post-flood assessments indicated less severe damage than expected. However, Q3 2025 saw a decrease in revenue and profitability compared to the previous year, impacted by reduced sales volumes and urea discounts.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️

Strength: 6/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

Macroeconomic indicators show stabilization, supporting a positive FY26 outlook with 3.6% GDP growth. 📈
Farmer economics improved with wheat prices rising to PKR 3,500-3,800 per maund in Q3. 🌾
Post-flood damage to cropped land was less severe than initially expected. 🌊
Rabi water availability is projected to be above average due to heavy monsoon inflows. 💧
Pressure on farmer input costs is expected to ease with potential subsidies. 💰
YTD Sales for Urea were 4,205 KT compared to 4,571 KT last year. 📉
Market Share for Urea increased slightly from 29% to 30%. 📊
Sales for Q3 2025 Urea were 589 KT compared to 466 KT in Q3 2024. 🚀
Urea inventory share stood at 46% in Q3 2025. 📦
Engro Markaz sales increased by 200% in Q3 2025. 🌟
DAP sales for Q3 2025 were only 16 KT compared to 291 KT last year. 📉
DAP YTD Sales are 97 KT vs 778 KT last year. 📉
EFERT launched Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) as an alternate product to DAP. 🌱
Company contributed ~PKR 20 Bn to the National Exchequer through taxes and levies. 🏦
Third interim dividend declared at PKR 4.5/share for Q3’25, compared to PKR 2.50/share for Q3’24. 💸

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the reduced sales and profitability with the increased debt, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. The price target would depend on the assumption of next year’s wheat price, which is hard to know at this time. This is a MEDIUM_TERM investment.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 21, 2025

AKGL announcements Signal: HOLD

⏸️ AKGL: HOLD Signal (5/10) – Corporate Briefing Session (CBS-2025)

⚡ Flash Summary

Al-Khair Gadoon Limited (AKGL) held a corporate briefing session on October 24, 2025, to discuss the company’s financial performance and outlook. The provided financial data reveals a mixed performance for the year ended June 30, 2025. While revenue increased from PKR 1,671 million to PKR 1,834 million, net profit decreased significantly from PKR 27.25 million to PKR 17.14 million, resulting in a lower Earnings Per Share (EPS) of PKR 1.71 compared to PKR 2.73 in the previous year. Total assets also increased from PKR 681.49 million to PKR 799.48 million.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️

Strength: 5/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

⬆️ Revenue increased by 9.75% from PKR 1,671 million in 2024 to PKR 1,834 million in 2025.
📉 Net profit decreased by 37.1% from PKR 27.25 million in 2024 to PKR 17.14 million in 2025.
📉 EPS declined by 37.36% from PKR 2.73 in 2024 to PKR 1.71 in 2025.
⬆️ Total assets increased by 17.31% from PKR 681.49 million in 2024 to PKR 799.48 million in 2025.
🔻 Profit before tax decreased from PKR 40.19 million to PKR 30.74 million.
🔻 Gross profit margin decreased slightly from 12.97% to 12.41%.
⬆️ Shareholders’ equity increased from PKR 322.39 million to PKR 342.09 million.
⬆️ The company has authorized capital of PKR 300 million.
✅ The company maintains its ISO 9001:2015 certification.
🏭 AKGL’s factory is located in Gadoon Amazai Industrial Estate, reflecting a strategic location for production.
🗓️ The company was established in 1980.
👨‍💼 Muhammad Amin Sheikh is the CEO of the company.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the financial performance in 2025, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate for AKGL. While revenue has increased, the decline in profitability and EPS raises concerns about the company’s ability to generate sustainable profits. The increased debt levels also add to the financial risk. A wait-and-see approach is warranted until there is evidence of improved profitability and efficient cost management. The price target should be based on a conservative estimate of future earnings, reflecting the current uncertainties.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

announcements Signal: SELL

📉 SBL: SELL Signal (7/10) – Financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025

⚡ Flash Summary

Samba Bank Limited (SBL) reported its Q3 2025 financial results, revealing a decrease in profitability compared to the same quarter last year. Net profit after taxation declined to PKR 286.877 million from PKR 103.663 million. This decline was driven by a decrease in total income from PKR 2.206 billion to PKR 1.890 billion. The bank did not announce any cash dividend, bonus shares, or right shares.

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 7/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: SHORT_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📉 Profit after taxation decreased significantly to PKR 286.877 million in Q3 2025 compared to PKR 103.663 million in Q3 2024.
📉 Total income declined from PKR 2.206 billion to PKR 1.890 billion year-over-year.
⚠️ Net mark-up/return/interest income decreased to PKR 1.361 billion from PKR 1.779 billion.
⚠️ Non-mark-up/interest income increased to PKR 527.780 million from PKR 426.897 million.
📊 Operating expenses decreased slightly to PKR 1.358 billion from PKR 1.383 billion.
🚫 No cash dividend was announced for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
🚫 No bonus shares were announced for the quarter.
🚫 No right shares were announced for the quarter.
💸 Basic and diluted earnings per share decreased to PKR 0.28 from PKR 0.30.
🏦 Total assets increased to PKR 231.978 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to PKR 182.485 billion as of December 31, 2024.
liabilities also increased from PKR 165.260 billion to PKR 213.709 billion.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the Q3 2025 results, a SELL recommendation is warranted for Samba Bank. The decline in profitability, reduced EPS, and increased liabilities present significant concerns. The price target is PKR 7.00, with a time horizon of 6 months, reflecting the expectation of continued underperformance compared to its peers.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

announcements NBP Signal: SELL

📉 NBP: SELL Signal (6/10) – Material Information

⚡ Flash Summary

National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) disclosed a transaction executed on October 16, 2025, where it sold 434,900 shares of First Dawood Properties Ltd. The sale was executed at a rate of PKR 9.03 per share, totaling PKR 3,927,386. Following this transaction, NBP’s holding in First Dawood Properties Ltd stands at 13.13%. This announcement is in compliance with the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) regulations regarding disclosure of interest by substantial shareholders.

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 6/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📢 NBP sold 434,900 shares of First Dawood Properties Ltd.
🗓️ The transaction occurred on October 16, 2025.
💸 The sale price was PKR 9.03 per share.
💰 Total transaction amount: PKR 3,927,386.
📉 NBP’s holding in First Dawood Properties Ltd is now 13.13%.
📜 The disclosure is under PSX regulations.
🏢 NBP is identified as a substantial shareholder.
🏦 Transaction executed by National Bank of Pakistan.
📄 Form of shares: CDC
🤝 Transaction executed with First Dawood Properties Ltd.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the information provided, a SELL recommendation is warranted. NBP’s decision to reduce its stake in First Dawood Properties Ltd suggests a potentially less favorable outlook for the company. A price target cannot be determined without a full valuation model, but investors should monitor First Dawood Properties Ltd’s performance and consider the implications of NBP’s reduced holding. Time horizon: MEDIUM_TERM.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

announcements Signal: SELL TPLP

📉 TPLP: SELL Signal (7/10) – Disclosure of Interest by a Director CEO, or Executive of a listed company and their Spouses and the Substantial Shareholders u/c 5.6.1.(d) of PSX Regulations

⚡ Flash Summary

On October 10, 2025, Muhammad Ali Jameel, a Director of TPL Properties Limited (TPLP), sold 950,000 shares of the company at a rate of PKR 11.95 per share. The transaction was executed in the Ready market through CDS certificates. Following this transaction, Muhammad Ali Jameel’s cumulative shareholding in TPLP stands at 39,811,916 shares, representing 7.10% of the total shareholding. This disclosure, dated October 17, 2025, is in compliance with Clause 5.6.4 of the PSX Regulations.

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 7/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

👨‍💼 Director Muhammad Ali Jameel sold shares.
🗓️ Transaction date: October 10, 2025.
📉 950,000 shares were sold.
💰 Sale price: PKR 11.95 per share.
📜 Shares held in CDS form.
Market: Ready Market.
📊 Post-transaction holding: 39,811,916 shares.
Ownership stake: 7.10%.
Regulatory disclosure as per PSX regulations.
Board meeting to review transaction.
Disclosure date: October 17, 2025.

🎯 Investment Thesis

SELL. The sale of a significant number of shares by a director is often perceived negatively by the market. While this single transaction does not provide a complete picture, it warrants caution. A price target cannot be accurately determined based on this information alone, but a re-evaluation of the company’s prospects is advised over a MEDIUM_TERM horizon.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

announcements Signal: SELL UCAPM

📉 UCAPM: SELL Signal (7/10) – UCAPM | Unicap Modaraba Disclosure of Change in Interest by Shareholder

⚡ Flash Summary

Map Out Management Company (Private) Limited, a shareholder of Unicap Modaraba, executed transactions to sell shares on October 1st and 2nd, 2025. On October 1st, they sold 20,000 shares at a rate of 5.73, and on October 2nd, they sold 25,000 shares at a rate of 5.86. Both transactions were conducted electronically. The company disclosed this change in interest as required by PSX regulations and will present it at the subsequent board meeting.

Signal: SELL 📉

Strength: 7/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📉 Map Out Management Co. sold 20,000 shares on October 1st, 2025.
💰 The shares were sold at a rate of 5.73 per share on October 1st.
🗓️ Another 25,000 shares were sold on October 2nd, 2025.
💸 The selling rate on October 2nd was slightly higher at 5.86 per share.
💻 Both transactions were executed electronically.
📄 The disclosure is in compliance with clause No. 5.6.4 of PSX Regulations.
🏢 The transactions will be discussed at the upcoming board meeting.
👤 Map Out Management Co. is identified as a shareholder.
📢 The announcement was made by Unicap Modaraba.
📅 The announcement is dated October 2, 2025.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the information available, a SELL recommendation is warranted. The sale of shares by a major shareholder often signals a lack of confidence or a portfolio reallocation. While this single event does not paint the whole picture, there are more questions than answers. A potential price target would be lower than the current market. Time horizon is MEDIUM_TERM, as more information is needed to refine the thesis.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

announcements Signal: HOLD

⏸️ KEL: HOLD Signal (6/10) – Disclosure of Material Information

⚡ Flash Summary

K-Electric Limited (KEL) has announced a delay in the release of its FY 2024 financial statements and the postponement of its Annual General Meeting (AGM), previously scheduled for November 11, 2025. This decision stems from ongoing proceedings by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) that could significantly impact the company’s financial results. The company is unable to reliably estimate the outcome of these proceedings and their effect on the financial statements. KEL assures stakeholders that they will be kept informed of any developments, including the re-authorization for the issuance of financial statements and holding of the AGM.

Signal: HOLD ⏸️

Strength: 6/10

Sentiment: NEGATIVE

Time Horizon: MEDIUM_TERM

📌 Key Takeaways

📅 AGM Postponed: KEL’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) initially set for November 11, 2025, is postponed due to NEPRA proceedings.
🚧 Regulatory Uncertainty: NEPRA’s ongoing proceedings create uncertainty regarding KEL’s financial outcomes.
📊 Financial Statement Delay: The release of FY 2024 financial statements is delayed until the NEPRA proceedings are resolved.
⚖️ NEPRA Review: NEPRA is reviewing multiple motions, including tariff determinations and write-off claims.
🗣️ Auditor Request: Auditors requested KEL’s management to represent the outcome and impact of NEPRA proceedings on FY24 financials.
🚫 Inability to Estimate: KEL cannot reliably estimate the outcome or financial impact of NEPRA proceedings.
📢 Prior Disclosure: This follows previous disclosures on September 23, 2025, regarding Board approval of FY 2024 statements.
⚡ Ministry of Energy Involvement: The Ministry of Energy (MoE) is involved in the reconsideration requests and review motions.
🤝 CPPA Involvement: Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) is also involved in the review motions related to write-off claims.
🔄 Reconsideration Requests: Hearings conducted on maintainability of the reconsideration request filed by the MoE.
📶 Transmission and Distribution: Determinations related to Transmission and Distribution (Network) are also under review.
💧 Supply Tariff Review: The supply tariff determination dated May 27, 2025, is under review.
🔄 Continuous Updates: KEL promises to keep the Exchange and market participants updated on any developments.
🔒 Beyond Company Control: The circumstances causing the delay are beyond KEL’s control.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the uncertainty surrounding the financial impact of the NEPRA proceedings on K-Electric, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. Until the regulatory issues are resolved and the audited financial statements for FY 2024 are released, it is difficult to make a definitive investment decision. Further clarity on the financial implications is needed to reassess the company’s prospects. A price target and time horizon will be determined once financial transparency is regained.

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Disclaimer: AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Written by: FoxLogica News Analysis

Published on: October 20, 2025

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