Positive

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Government Securities Fund – II (NGSP-VIII) reported a net income of Rs. 24.06 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, after deducting total expenses of Rs. 1.14 million from a total income of Rs. 25.20 million. The fund size closed at Rs. 2,132 million, with the unit price increasing to Rs. 10.0976 since inception. The fund’s return was 9.7% p.a., compared to its benchmark return of 10.7% p.a. The asset allocation includes 80.31% in PIBs, 15.00% in T-Bills, and 4.69% in cash and other net assets.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 The fund size closed at Rs. 2,132 million.
• 💰 Net income for the period was Rs. 24.06 million.
• 💹 Unit price increased to Rs. 10.0976 since inception.
• 📊 The fund returned 9.7% p.a., vs. a benchmark of 10.7% p.a.
• 🇵🇰 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 11%.
• 📉 Average inflation for Q1 eased to 4.2%, down from 9.2% last year.
• 🎯 Average inflation for FY26 is projected to remain within SBP’s 5%-7% target range.
• 🌱 Real GDP growth for FY26 is projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.
• 🌐 Foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 14.4 billion on September 26th.
• 💸 The current account deficit was USD 624 million for July-August.
• ⚖️ The asset allocation includes PIBs (80.31%), T-Bills (15.00%), and cash (4.69%).
• 🏦 Rs. 3.55 trillion was raised via T-Bill auctions.
• 💹 Rs. 1.64 trillion and Rs. 558 billion were realized from fixed and floating-rate PIB auctions, respectively.
• 💰The Board of Directors approved an interim cash dividend of 0.165% of the opening ex-NAV.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the fund’s stable performance, focus on government securities, and alignment with macroeconomic policies, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. The fund offers steady returns but may not outperform its benchmark significantly. It’s a suitable option for investors seeking stable income with minimal risk.

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Government Securities Savings Fund (NGSSF) reported a net income of Rs. 122.697 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The fund’s size increased by 24% to Rs. 5,062 million. The unit price rose to Rs. 10.7768, showing a return of 9.3% p.a., compared to the benchmark return of 10.7% p.a. The fund maintains a stability rating of ‘AA-(f)’ by PACRA, reflecting a strong position in the government securities market.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 Fund size increased by 24%, reaching Rs. 5,062 million.
• 💰 Net income totaled Rs. 122.697 million after deducting expenses.
• 📊 Unit price increased to Rs. 10.7768 as of September 30, 2025.
• ✅ Return on investment stood at 9.3% p.a.
• ⭐ Fund stability rating maintained at ‘AA-(f)’ by PACRA.
• 🏦 Total income for the period was Rs. 144.416 million.
• 💸 Total expenses amounted to Rs. 21.719 million.
• 🏛️ Asset allocation heavily weighted in PIBs (AAA) at 76.61%.
• 🧾 T-Bills (AAA) comprised 16.91% of the asset allocation.
• 💵 Cash equivalents & other net assets (AA+) represented 6.48% of the portfolio.
• 📌 State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 11%.
• 📉 Average inflation for Q1 FY26 eased to 4.2%, down from 9.2% last year.
• 🎯 Real GDP growth for FY26 is projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.
• 💹 Foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 14.4 billion on September 26th.
• ⚠️ Recent floods have disrupted food supply chains, causing prices to rise.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Maintain HOLD. NGSSF’s conservative investment strategy and focus on government securities make it suitable for risk-averse investors seeking steady returns. However, macroeconomic risks in Pakistan and the fund’s sensitivity to interest rate movements suggest limited upside potential. The current yield is attractive but further gains will be limited until external sector improves and overall policy measures implemented.

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Islamic Money Market Fund (NIMMF) reported a 35% increase in fund size, growing from Rs. 37,250 million to Rs. 50,207 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The fund’s unit price increased to Rs. 10.4189, resulting in an annualized return of 9.6%, slightly below the benchmark return of 9.7%. The fund’s objective is to provide better returns than offered by Islamic Banks. The asset allocation includes investments in Cash Equivalents, Bai Moajjal, Gop Ijara Sukuks, Corporate Sukuks, and Term Deposit Receipts.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 Fund size increased by 35% to Rs. 50,207 million.
• 💰 Unit price rose to Rs. 10.4189, yielding 9.6% p.a. return.
• 🎯 Return slightly below benchmark of 9.7% p.a.
• ⭐ Fund stability rating is ‘AA (f)’ by PACRA.
• 🏦 Aims to outperform Islamic Banks’ profit rates.
• ⚠️ Maximum security maturity limited to six months.
• ⏳ Weighted average time to maturity cannot exceed 90 days.
• 💼 Total income for the period: Rs. 1,238.13 million.
• 🧾 Total expenses: Rs. 98.54 million.
• ✅ Net income: Rs. 1,139.59 million.
• 📊 Asset allocation includes Cash Equivalents (30.64%), Bai Moajjal (27.19%), and Gop Ijara Sukuks (14.09%).
• 🏦 Policy rate maintained at 11% by the State Bank of Pakistan.
• 📉 Average inflation eased to 4.2%, down from 9.2% last year.
• 🎯 FY26 inflation targeted within 5%-7% range.
• 🌱 Real GDP growth for FY26 projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the fund’s strong growth, stable returns, and diversified asset allocation, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. The NIMMF’s stable rating by PACRA and its focus on Shariah-compliant investments make it a suitable option for risk-averse investors seeking stable returns. However, the underperformance against the benchmark warrants closer monitoring of investment strategies and expense management. Until more data regarding future investments are available, a HOLD recommendation is best.

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Mahana Amdani Fund (NMAF) reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The fund’s size increased significantly by approximately 2.67 times, growing from Rs. 7,306 million to Rs. 19,480 million. The unit price also saw an increase, moving from Rs. 10.2971 on June 30, 2025, to Rs. 10.5621 on September 30, 2025. The fund achieved a return of 10.2% p.a., slightly below the benchmark return of 10.6% p.a.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 Fund size increased by ~2.67x, from Rs. 7,306 million to Rs. 19,480 million.
• 💰 Unit price increased from Rs. 10.2971 to Rs. 10.5621 during the quarter.
• 📊 Fund return was 10.2% p.a., vs. a benchmark of 10.6% p.a..
• 🏦 Policy rate maintained at 11% by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
• inflation rose to 5.6% in September from 3.0% in August
• 📉 Average inflation for the quarter was 4.2%, down from 9.2% last year.
• 🎯 Average inflation for FY26 projected within the SBP’s 5%-7% target range.
• 🌱 Real GDP growth for FY26 projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.
• ⚠️ Current account deficit was USD 624 million for July-August.
• reserves stood at USD 14.4 billion on September 26th and are projected to reach USD 17 billion by June-26.
• ✅ Fiscal performance improved with a primary surplus expected in Q1 FY26.
• 💸 Rs. 2.4 trillion SBP profit transfer and higher petroleum levies aided fiscal performance.
• ✅ Sovereign debt markets remained stable with Rs. 3.55 trillion raised via T-Bill auctions.
• ⭐ Fund is rated ‘AA- (f)’ by PACRA, indicating a very strong capacity to maintain relative stability in returns.
• 💼 Total income for the period was Rs. 282.71 million; net income was Rs. 245.15 million after expenses.

🎯 Investment Thesis

HOLD. While the NBP Mahana Amdani Fund has shown growth in size and unit price, its return slightly lags the benchmark. Given the current economic conditions in Pakistan, characterized by fluctuating inflation and policy rates, it’s prudent to maintain a neutral stance. A detailed analysis of the fund’s asset allocation and investment strategy is necessary before considering a BUY recommendation. Price Target: Rs. 10.75, Time Horizon: Medium Term

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Mustahkam Fund – II reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The fund’s size increased by 2% to Rs. 4,651 million and Rs. 8,721 million for NFTMP-XIX and NFTMP-XVA, respectively. The unit price also experienced growth, leading to returns of 9.8% p.a. and 10.1% p.a. as compared to its benchmark return of 13.2% p.a. and 11.0% p.a. The fund maintains its investment strategy in fixed-income instruments to provide potentially higher returns.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 **Fund Size Growth:** NBP Mustahkam Fund – II’s size increased by 2% for both NFTMP-XIX and NFTMP-XVA.
• 💰 **Asset Under Management (AUM):** NFTMP-XIX reached Rs. 4,651 million and NFTMP-XVA reached Rs. 8,721 million.
• 📊 **Unit Price Appreciation:** The unit price increased, reflecting positive market performance.
• ⭐ **Return on Investment (ROI):** NFTMP-XIX showed a return of 9.8% p.a.
• ✔ **Benchmark Comparison:** NFTMP-XIX benchmark return was 13.2% p.a.
• 💹 **Return on Investment (ROI):** NFTMP-XVA showed a return of 10.1% p.a.
• ✔ **Benchmark Comparison:** NFTMP-XVA benchmark return was 11.0% p.a.
• 🎯 **Investment Strategy:** Primarily invests in Fixed Income instruments for specific duration.
• 🏛️ **Government Securities:** The plan strategically invests in government securities aligned with the plan’s maturity.
• 📜 **Total Income (NFTMP-XIX):** NFTMP-XIX earned a total income of Rs. 117 million during the period.
• ➖ **Total Expenses (NFTMP-XIX):** NFTMP-XIX experienced total expenses of Rs. 5 million.
• 📜 **Net Income (NFTMP-XIX):** NFTMP-XIX net income totaled Rs. 112 million.
• 📜 **Total Income (NFTMP-XVA):** NFTMP-XVA earned a total income of Rs. 224 million during the period.
• ➖ **Total Expenses (NFTMP-XVA):** NFTMP-XVA experienced total expenses of Rs. 7 million.
• 📜 **Net Income (NFTMP-XVA):** NFTMP-XVA net income totaled Rs. 217 million.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Given the fund’s growth, consistent performance, and focus on fixed-income, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. While the returns are below the benchmark, the fund provides a stable investment option. If the fund performance improves and meets or exceeds its benchmark, a BUY recommendation might be warranted. Continue to HOLD the NBP Mustahkam fund to allow the fund managers time to correct any portfolio issues. A potential price target is difficult to quantify without more granular information. Re-evaluate in Q1 2026.