Positive

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Savings Fund (NBP-SF) reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The State Bank of Pakistan maintained the policy rate at 11% to manage inflation, which rose to 5.6% in September but averaged 4.2% for the quarter. The fund’s size doubled to Rs. 12,123 million, and the unit price increased to Rs. 10.4331, showing a 20.6% annualized return compared to the benchmark return of 10.6%. NBP-SF earned a total income of Rs. 510.52 million and a net income of Rs. 473.64 million after expenses.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 NBP-SF’s asset base doubled, growing from Rs. 6,065 million to Rs. 12,123 million.
• 💰 Unit price increased to Rs. 10.4331, up from Rs. 9.9172 on June 30, 2025.
• ⭐ Fund achieved an annualized return of 20.6%, significantly outperforming the benchmark’s 10.6%.
• 🏦 SBP maintained the policy rate at 11% to control inflation.
• 📊 Average inflation for Q1 FY26 eased to 4.2%, compared to 9.2% in the previous year.
• 💲 Current account deficit stood at USD 624 million for July-August.
• reserves reached USD 14.4 billion on September 26, projected to hit USD 17 billion by June 2026.
• ✅ Fiscal performance improved, with a primary surplus expected in Q1 FY26.
• 💸 Rs. 2.4 trillion SBP profit transfer contributed to fiscal improvement.
• 💸 Total income for the period amounted to Rs. 510.52 million.
• expenses were Rs. 36.88 million, resulting in a net income of Rs. 473.64 million.
• 📊 Asset allocation includes Cash Equivalents & Other Net Assets at 59.11%, CFS/MTS at 22.95%, T-Bills at 12.17%, and Term Deposit Receipts at 5.77%.
• 🛡️ The fund has been awarded a stability rating of ‘A+ (f)’ by PACRA.
• ✔️ Real GDP growth for FY26 is projected between 3.0% and 3.5%.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the strong performance and positive growth trajectory, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate for NBP Savings Fund. The fund’s robust returns, coupled with its focus on stability and liquidity, make it a suitable investment for risk-averse investors. However, potential interest rate fluctuations and inflationary pressures warrant a cautious approach. A price target cannot be accurately determined without further analysis of portfolio composition and market conditions. The time horizon for this recommendation is medium-term (6-12 months), pending further assessment of economic developments and fund performance.

⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Stock Fund (NSF) has shown significant growth, increasing in size from PKR 39.981 billion to PKR 54.790 billion, a 37.0% increase, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The unit price of NSF also increased from PKR 32.2889 to PKR 42.8392, representing a 32.7% increase, while the benchmark rose by 34.9%, underperforming the benchmark by 2.2%. The fund’s NAV has increased by 1,965.2% since its inception on January 19, 2007, demonstrating strong long-term performance. The fund’s performance remains strong, driven by strategic asset allocation and effective management of expenses.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 NSF’s fund size grew by 37.0%, from PKR 39.981 billion to PKR 54.790 billion.
• 💰 Unit price increased by 32.7%, from PKR 32.2889 to PKR 42.8392.
• 📉 The fund underperformed its benchmark by 2.2% during the quarter.
• 🚀 Since inception, the fund’s NAV increased by 1,965.2%.
• 📊 The stock market showed a strong rally, increasing by 32%.
• 🏦 The rally was led by Commercial Banks, Cement, Oil & Gas Exploration, Fertilizer, and Power Generation sectors.
• Inflation averaged 4.2% during the quarter, down from 9.2% last year.
• 💸 Foreign exchange reserves remained stable at USD 14.4 billion.
• 🤝 IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) second review concluded.
• 🌱 Government revised FY25 GDP growth upwards from 2.68% to 3.04%.
• 🏭 Industrial sector growth reached 19.9% in 4QFY25.
• 💼 Mutual funds, individuals, and companies were significant net buyers.
• 💸 The fund earned a total income of PKR 13,590.86 million during the period.
• 🧾 Net income after expenses was PKR 13,137.46 million.

🎯 Investment Thesis

Based on the fund’s growth, solid long-term performance, and strategic asset allocation, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate. The underperformance against the benchmark is a concern, but the fund’s overall financial health and potential for future growth warrant maintaining the current position. Price target: PKR 45.00 based on continued market growth and improved stock selection. Time horizon: Medium Term