⚡ Flash Summary

NBP Pakistan Growth Exchange Traded Fund (NBPGETF) reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The fund’s size increased from Rs. 138 million to Rs. 200 million during the period, representing a growth of 44.9%. The unit price of NBPGETF increased by 36.8% from Rs. 21.7785 to Rs. 29.7822. However, the fund underperformed its benchmark by 0.6% during the period, with a tracking error of 0.01%.

📌 Key Takeaways

• 📈 Fund size increased by 44.9% from Rs. 138 million to Rs. 200 million.
• 💰 Unit price increased by 36.8% from Rs. 21.7785 to Rs. 29.7822.
• 📉 Fund underperformed its benchmark by 0.6%.
• 🎯 Tracking error for the period was 0.01%.
• 🚀 NAV of the Fund has increased by 322.9% since inception.
• 📊 Benchmark increased by 381.0% since inception.
• 💹 Stock market delivered a strong 32% return during 1QFY26.
• 🏦 Rally was broad-based, led by Commercial Banks, Cement, Oil & Gas Exploration, Fertilizer, and Power Generation sectors.
• 📉 Inflation averaged 4.2% during the quarter, down from 9.2% a year earlier.
• 🎯 Core inflation eased to 7.3%.
• 🌍 Current account deficit widened to USD 624 million during 2MFY26 from USD 430 million last year.
• 💸 Remittances grew by 8.4% YoY during 1QFY26.
• 💵 Foreign exchange reserves remained stable at USD 14.4 billion as of Sep 26, 2025.
• 🤝 IMF agreement will unlock around USD 1.2 billion in financial assistance.
• 🌱 Government revised FY25 GDP growth upward to 3.04%.

🎯 Investment Thesis

I recommend a HOLD rating for NBPGETF. While the fund has grown in size, its underperformance relative to its benchmark and concerns about macroeconomic factors warrant caution. A price target of Rs. 28.00 seems appropriate, with the expectation that active management will improve. Over the next six months, monitor performance relative to benchmark.